Unlock access, then trade overnight
In Probably Stolen, Sawyer's Crew unlocks the Underground Exchange from the start; other saves progress toward access through Black Market contacts. Once you have access, read Sawyer's Underground Exchange Directive, place the exact recipe items in the shop trash bin, enable the overnight cleaning service, sleep and collect the result the next morning.
Sawyer, the Directive and Smuggler's Bay
For immediate access in a fresh save, choose the Sawyer's Crew starting perk. It costs +1 perk point and makes the Underground Exchange available from the start. It also makes Janitorial Service free unless the store is vandalized, with a reduced charge for vandalism cleanup.
The exchange is tied to Smuggler's Bay rather than a separate shop you walk into. Sawyer supplies the Underground Exchange Directive, which gives you the applicable recipe list. Keep that document handy when preparing a trade so you can match its requirements.
Advanced licenses open the broader underground market; Sawyer's Crew gives immediate Underground Exchange access at the start of a run.
Complete an overnight exchange
- Read the Underground Exchange Directive and choose an available recipe. Use its item requirements to decide what you want to receive before moving anything into the exchange route.
- Gather the exact items required by that recipe. Keep goods you intend to sell or use elsewhere apart from the exchange inputs to make the handoff easier to check.
- Place the required inputs in the shop trash bin for the exchange. Match the Directive's recipe rather than treating every unwanted item as something the exchange will accept.
- Sleep to let the overnight exchange take place. Plan around receiving the result the following morning rather than relying on it for something you need before sleeping.
- Collect and inspect the output the next morning. Check the item you received before preparing another trade, especially when replacing worn supplies that you still need for production.
Permanent recipes and temporary deals
| Exchange type | How it works |
|---|---|
| Permanent Directive recipes | The October demo lists seven permanent exchanges, usable once per night. Prepare the exact recipe inputs. |
| Promotional exchanges | These separate offers refresh on Monday. Check the current promotion before setting items aside for it. |
| Temporary exchange deals | These are distinct from permanent recipes. The Smuggler's Bay underground exchange takes priority over a temporary exchange deal. |
Useful permanent trades include three used Water Filters for one new filter, and two modules for one new module. For filter replacement, save the worn filters if you want to use that recipe. Follow the current Directive when preparing the exchange.
How Black Market reputation affects trading
Black Market reputation affects underground contacts, and the Thief's stock scales with your standing. Positive faction perks occur at +20, +40 and +60, while Blacklisted status applies at −40. Keep access, visitor stock and the recipe you are attempting in mind separately when deciding what needs attention.
At −40 Black Market reputation, Janitorial Service remains available, but its cost is doubled. Check the cleaning charge when budgeting for an overnight trade, alongside any janitorial benefit from Sawyer's Crew.
Supply and Science keycards and their desequencer chips were removed from stock because their corresponding supply crates are absent. Hunting for those items through different sellers will not solve an exchange problem.
Read Reputation & factions for more on faction standing and how trading affects your relationships.
Missing Directive or unexpected trade results
- If you chose Sawyer's Crew with Skip Intro disabled and Sawyer never supplied the Directive, update the demo before restarting your run. Update 049 fixed that specific handover bug; Skip Intro is not required to avoid it in the patched behavior.
- If a temporary deal appears to conflict with your trade, check the Directive's recipe first. Update 049 changed the priority so the Smuggler's Bay exchange takes precedence, and revised the Directive to make its instructions clearer.
- If the Directive's poison picture looks different from an older guide, the symbol was changed to a cyanide pill during the playtest. Read the recipe's requirement rather than identifying an input from an old picture alone.
Exchange access and Security inspections
Underground access does not cancel the inspection and evidence risks of contraband. Black Market standing and Security consequences operate independently, and contraband can bring raids. Keep the risk of holding the resulting goods in mind when choosing a recipe.
Displaying contraband and then hiding it in Smuggler's Bay to clear the resulting inspection no longer earns Security reputation. That reward loop was removed during the playtest. If an investigation completes, the security officer now visits the following morning, so do not plan around the older extra-day delay.
Demo access and the full-game Fence start
The Fence starting package with Smuggler's Bay is announced for the full release, rather than a generally available starting route in the current demo. Probably Stolen is scheduled to launch on October 28, 2026. For immediate demo access, use Sawyer's Crew; keep the announced Fence package separate when following an older or full-release guide.